Global oil prices continued their recent climb and the S&P 500 closed lower Monday after a weekend when Iran-backed Houthi militants launched ballistic missiles at Israel and 3,500 additional U.S. troops arrived in the Middle East.

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The conflict between Iran, the U.S. and Israel has entered its second month, with disruptions to oil and other energy and commodities supplies starting to reverberate around the world.

Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, gained 1.5%, to more than $114 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed almost 5%, to about $104 a barrel, settling above $100 for the first time since 2022.

Rising oil prices are one of the more immediate consequences of the war. Average U.S. gasoline prices hit $3.99 a gallon Monday, according to AAA, the highest since the summer of 2022. Patrick De Haan, chief analyst at Gas Buddy, projected Monday afternoon they would rise to $4 within 24 hours as the average price of gasoline in Florida surged to $4.29.

De Haan estimates that U.S. drivers will soon have spent an additional $10 billion on gasoline since the conflict began just one month ago.

The S&P 500, one of the broadest measures of stocks, fell 0.4% Monday and is now within less than a full percentage point of having declined 10% since its most recent high in January. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index is already in correction territory, down more than 13% from its October high.

Some investors have begun to question President Donald Trump’s ability to reassure financial markets without material progress on the ground.

Investors also increased their purchases of U.S. government bonds Monday over fears of an economic slowdown, sending bond yields lower and dragging down stocks.

Traders now believe higher oil prices may put a damper on overall demand for goods and services.

Bloomberg News reported that U.S. officials and Wall Street analysts have begun considering the prospect that oil prices could surge to as much as $200 a barrel as the largest oil shock in decades continues to reverberate.

That prospect has led analysts to project a global economic slowdown that would hit a U.S. economy already facing suddenly higher gasoline prices.

Earlier Monday, Trump said “great progress has been made” in talks with Iran. At the same time, he threatened to destroy Iran’s civilian energy and water infrastructure if a deal to end the war and reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz is not reached soon.

Tehran has said U.S. proposals were “unrealistic” and “unreasonable.”

“I think we’ll make a deal with them, pretty sure, but it’s possible we won’t,” Trump told reporters late Sunday. He later said a deal could come “soon.”

Trump also said that Iran “gave us most” of a 15-point plan the U.S. sent Tehran to end the war, which Iran has yet to publicly confirm, and that 20 boatloads of oil — on top of 10 the previous week — will be passing through the Strait of Hormuz beginning Monday “out of a sign of respect.”

Trump separately told the Financial Times on Sunday that an Iran deal could be made “fairly quickly” and that he wants to “take the oil in Iran.”

Surging oil prices continue to ripple through the global economy because of the war with Iran. Now, some analysts say the worst could still be ahead as the conflict drags on.

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The concern is that beyond immediate knock-on effects from rising gasoline prices, the war’s disruption could come in waves — ones that will play out over weeks and months and leave few parts of the global economy untouched.

“We haven’t seen the brunt of it yet,” said Samantha Gross, director of energy security and climate at the Brookings Institute. “I feel like markets are so far underestimating the effect of the war. It seems that they expect this war to go quickly, and they expect that we can go back to the world before when it’s over. And I don’t think either of those ideas is true.”

The warning signs are already here. The global oil price benchmark, Brent crude — which heavily influences U.S. gasoline prices — briefly topped $119 a barrel last week, the highest since the war began and a level last seen in July 2022 amid the pandemic-era inflation wave. As of Monday, Brent prices had settled at about $113 a barrel.

The average price of a gallon of gasoline hit $4 Tuesday for the first time since mid-2022, as the cost of oil surges due to the Iran war.

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In the month since the United States and Israel attacked Iran, the average price of unleaded gas has spiked more than a dollar a gallon. On Tuesday morning, the average price nationwide was $4.02 per gallon, motor club AAA said.

It’s not just retail gasoline. The diesel fuel used to power trucks delivering goods to stores, farm equipment and public transit has risen to $5.45 per gallon, more than $1.80 higher than it was a year ago.

Driving that is the soaring cost of crude oil worldwide. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has risen more than 50% since the war began Feb. 28, while Brent, the international benchmark, has seen a jump of nearly 60%.

On Monday, U.S. crude oil settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Brent crude oil is poised to see its largest one-month increase on record.

Oil prices had already started rising before the Iran war began, fueled by fears that a conflict was imminent. Since the start of the year, the cost of U.S. crude oil is up more than 80% and Brent has skyrocketed almost 90%.

In response to strikes by the U.S. and Israel, Iran has effectively blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel off its southern coast. Tehran has also attacked its Gulf Arab neighbors, who are major oil producers.

Typically, more than 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through the waterway. But Iran has repeatedly threatened to attack ships if they move through the strait without permission or if they’re associated with the U.S. or Israel. Several tankers have been hit.

As a result, many tankers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to deliver their products to markets.

Some tankers have been allowed to pass through the strait, including one associated with India and three associated with China. But overall traffic through the waterway is down more than 90% in March.

During the first 28 days of the war, a total of only 55 to 60 tankers have cleared the Strait of Hormuz, according to the ship tracking website TankerTrackers.

Before the war, more than 100 ships per day made the passage, it said.

“This rise in gasoline spending could potentially dampen consumers’ ability to spend on ‘nice-to-have’ or discretionary categories,” Bank of America economists recently wrote.

This year, the average U.S. household will spend an additional $740 on gas because of the jump in oil prices, according to economists from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

“The consumer has already seen the sticker shock from rising gasoline prices and increased airline ticket prices from the rising cost of jet fuel,” longtime industry analyst Andy Lipow said. “However, the full effects of the higher diesel prices has yet to be felt and that will flow through the economy over the next few months.”

As American consumers adjust to higher gas prices, oil dependent nations in Europe and Asia are already facing much more severe energy shocks. Inflation, oil and gas rationing and sharp pullbacks in economic growth estimates are impacting billions of people worldwide.

American flyers still smarting from interminable airport security lines are about to get another shock.

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A looming global jet fuel shortage is expected to hike the cost of air travel and reduce flight schedules, as airlines look to offset rising prices.

On Monday, JetBlue announced it was raising baggage fees, citing “rising operating costs.”

“While we recognize that fee increases are never ideal, we take careful consideration to ensure these changes are implemented only when necessary,” the carrier said.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said costs to passengers have already been increasing. Data from flight information group OAG shows average airfares in the past week reached $465, the highest price point for the same period since at least 2019.

“We have to raise prices to deal with higher fuel prices,” Kirby acknowledged at a company event last week in Los Angeles. In a subsequent memo, he added: “It may be a challenge to continue passing through much of the increased fuel price if oil stays higher for longer.”

The rising prices are the latest example of the economic fallout from the war with Iran. Analysts have started warning that the full toll has only begun to be accounted for as the global economy absorbs the loss of critical energy exports out of the region due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to other key energy infrastructure sites in the region. On Tuesday, U.S. gasoline prices hit $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022 amid surging oil prices. Major stock indexes, meanwhile, have fallen by nearly 10% since the start of the war.

In the case of air travel, the industry is facing jet fuel prices that have surged 85% in the U.S. since the day before the war began in February, according to data from Argus published by the industry group Airlines for America. On Monday, they hit a record $4.62 a gallon.

Most U.S. carriers no longer hedge fuel costs, said Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group. So they are forced to pass on some costs to passengers.

While U.S. carriers largely source jet fuel domestically, countries in Asia and Europe that are more reliant on Middle East stocks have begun signaling they are taking unprecedented measures to conserve jet fuel. In South Korea, carriers have requested that the government help redirect fuel stocks bound for export back to local markets.

The Financial Times reported Monday that the U.K. was also facing an acute shortage, with no Britain-bound cargoes visible on the water as transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Some foreign carriers have begun charging fuel surcharges of as much as $150.

As overseas carriers begin looking to alternative supply bases, the cost for a global commodity like jet fuel rises across the board.

“It shocks the entire mechanism,” said Jaime Brito, an executive director at Oil Price Information Service consultancy.

President Donald Trump commented on the jet fuel shortages Tuesday morning, though he did not mention their impact on U.S. travelers.

“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” he wrote on Truth Social.

Airlines are also signaling capacity cuts to cope with rising costs. United will drop about 5% of planned flights in mostly “off-peak periods” — like red-eye and midweek routes — during the second and third quarters of 2026 to further mitigate the cost increases.

“We’re certainly going to be nimble in terms of capacity to make sure that supply and demand stay in balance,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said at a JPMorgan conference earlier this month.

Kyle Potter, executive editor of the Thrifty Traveler, said most carriers have quietly been raising airfares since the Iran war began. He said airlines typically move in droves when making pricing decisions, so it is likely that other carriers may also soon begin raising baggage fees or seek other forms of ancillary revenue. Potter noted that unlike airfares, revenues from these fees are not subject to federal excise taxes.

As a result, the fees — unlike airfares — are unlikely to come back down assuming jet fuel prices recover.

Representatives for five other major U.S. carriers did not respond to a request for comment.

The acute fuel price increase comes as air travel demand has remained steady, with January and February ticket sales at or near records. While investors have taken airline stocks down some 25% since the start of the Iran war, Kirby said that customers appear willing to keep booking thanks to healthy demand even if airfare rises.

“The number of wealthy Americans who are traveling is bigger and wealthier than ever, and that is what much of the airline industry is relying on right now,” Potter said. “And that means they’re more immune to higher fees, higher fares and just getting turned off by negative news about travel.”