Lithium in 2025: A tale of two markets

In contrast, the second half of 2025 saw a boost in prices across the lithium space as market fundamentals improved due to Contemporary Amperex Technology (SZSE:300750,HKEX:3750) curtailing operations at the Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in early August. Despite reports that Jianxiawo would restart operations in December, it is unclear if the mine, which is one of the world’s largest, is back in operation.

Concern over the removed supply pushed carbonate prices higher from mid-October through the end of the year, when they rose from US$10,417.37 to US$14,131.44, a 34 percent increase.

Battery energy storage demand key to lithium growth

Another trend Klein pointed to was the rapid growth in the battery energy storage system (BESS) market, which is expected to grow by 44 percent in 2025, representing a quarter of all battery demand.

“We’ve been talking about BESS being a very fast, growing and big part of the market, but it’s now become the consensus opinion that it’s very strong not only in China, but elsewhere,” said Klein.

Although BESS is one of the fastest-growing segments of the battery market, Klein believes its growth potential is not fully understood. “The market’s probably still underestimating that narrative about battery energy storage,” he said, adding that it is only now starting to be understood by people who are in the industry.

“But for the broader, generalist investor who still equates lithium with EVs, they don’t fully understand the battery energy storage angle, so I think they’re still underestimating that,” said Klein. The market is projected to balloon from US$13.7 billion in 2024 to US$43.4 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 21.3 percent.

Industry analysts expect BESS installations could expand from roughly 205 gigawatt-hours in 2024 to between 520 and 700 gigawatt-hours by 2030, driven by renewable integration, grid stability needs and declining costs.

While EVs have dominated the lithium narrative, Del Real said the real opportunity was “never just a play on EVs or hybrids — it was a play on grid storage, energy storage,” with cheaper battery cells unlocking faster adoption.

That mispricing has created a contrarian opportunity, he added, noting that lithium’s neglect over the past six months has rewarded patient investors. “It’s lonely in the forest sometimes,” Del Real said. But when sentiment turns, “the re-rating can be spectacularly profitable if you know how to play it.”

Lithium exploration budgets evaporate

Lithium exploration budgets were sharply reduced in 2025 as miners retrenched amid prolonged price weakness.

S&P Global’s 2025 corporate exploration strategies study shows that spending on lithium and other critical minerals exploration fell significantly, even as overall non-ferrous exploration dipped only slightly.

Lithium, which had previously broken the US$1 billion mark for exploration spending, saw its allocation cut as junior companies tightened their belts and delayed programs. Cuts were most pronounced in traditional exploration hubs such as Canada, Australia and the US, where weakened junior sectors hit budgets hardest; meanwhile, regions like Chile, Peru and Saudi Arabia recorded relative gains in broader exploration funding.

Lithium remains a structurally important exploration commodity despite a sharp pullback in spending, Kevin Murphy, director of metals and mining research at S&P Global, said during a December webinar.

Murphy described the metal’s rise over the past decade as a “lithium renaissance.”

Once “completely inconsequential for exploration,” lithium has become the third most explored commodity globally over the past five years, underscoring how central it has become to future-facing supply chains.

However, that momentum stalled in 2025 as ongoing price weakness forced a reset. Murphy said lithium exploration budgets were “absolutely gutted,” falling to roughly half of 2024 levels, a decline he described as expected given depressed prices and the completion of several late-stage programs that wrapped up in late 2024 and early 2025.

“The lithium price has been depressed for too long for the budgets to be resilient,” he said, framing the downturn as cyclical rather than structural.

Lithium stocks stage H2 rally

Speaking at this year’s Benchmark Week event in November, Sean Gilmartin, senior equity analyst at Bloomberg, explained that lithium equities staged a sharp rebound in H2 after years of underperformance.

After lagging broader materials and chemical indexes for much of the first half of the year, lithium stocks surged in the second half of the year, closely tracking rising spot prices.

“Over a three year window, lithium names were still very much lagging,” Gilmartin said, “but we’ve flipped the script in a few months. Year-to-date, we’re seeing on average 47 percent gains, closely aligned with spot markets.”

He attributed the turnaround to stronger-than-expected lithium demand, particularly from BESS, as well as supply curtailments in China, which have tightened the market.

Despite the rebound, he cautioned that volatility remains a defining feature of the lithium equities space.

“You need to have a long-term view, and you have to be very adherent to your thesis,” Gilmartin said, noting that the demand story remains intact and that fundamentals continue to support growth through 2026 and beyond.

Nickel supply in 2026

The big question going into the new year is if nickel supply and demand will come into balance.

The most significant contributing factor over the last several years has been an abundance of supply from Indonesia, which has become the world’s top nickel producer.

The US Geological Survey estimates that full-year 2024 nickel production came in at 2.2 million MT, a staggering increase over the 800,000 MT it believes the nation produced in 2019.

In February 2025, the Indonesian government changed its quota system, effectively increasing nickel ore output to 298.5 million wet metric tons (WMT) from 271 million WMT in 2024. At the time, it said the increased production capacity was being limited to major production areas and was designed to reduce supply pressures.

The increase helped drive the amount of nickel sitting in exchange warehouses. Stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) had risen to 254,364 MT by the end of November, up from 164,028 MT at the start of 2025.

Meanwhile, the nickel price sank to US$14,295, toward the lower end of profitability for low-cost Indonesian miners.

The profitability question has raised the possibility of cuts — according to Shanghai Metal Market, the Indonesian government is proposing to cut nickel ore output to around 250 million MT in 2026. If the reduction comes to pass, it would mark a significant decline from the 379 million WMT laid out by Indonesia in 2025. Discussions on the final amount are ongoing, and the outlet states that it will be some time before the target is finalized.

“The global market is still forecast to remain in surplus — around 261,000 MT in 2026 — so further cuts would need to be significant to alter fundamentals,” she explained.

Additionally, there could be a wait-and-see approach as other new policies adopted by the Indonesian government in 2025 begin to take hold. The first, introduced in April, saw a shift from a flat 10 percent royalty to a more dynamic rate of 14 to 18 percent, depending on nickel prices. The second came in October, when the government cut the validity period of mining licenses from three years to one, providing the government greater oversight of production levels.

These prices, however, aren’t supportive of western producers, which began curtailing operations in 2024 when the LME average price was US$16,812 and reached US$21,000 in May of that year.

For her part, Manthy suggested that to get back to that range, there needs to be a more coordinated approach to constraining supply, and it may not make an immediate difference.

“To push prices to that range, cuts would need to be deep enough to erase most of the projected surplus. Given the scale — hundreds of thousands of MT — this seems unlikely without coordinated action. Even then, investor sentiment would probably require sustained prices above US$20,000 to materially improve producer attractiveness,” she said.

Nickel demand in 2026

The challenges faced by nickel go beyond oversupply; demand growth for the base metal is also soft.

Nickel’s primary use case is in the production of stainless steel, much of it destined for the Chinese housing market, which has yet to recover from its collapse in 2020.

While the Chinese government tried to stabilize the market in 2024 and earlier in 2025, it has done little to reverse the downward trend. According to a CNBC report on December 2, November sales were down 36 percent from the same period in 2024, and declined 19 percent through the first 11 months of the year.

“China’s property sector weakness has weighed on stainless steel demand, which accounts for over 60 percent of global nickel consumption. Even with broader economic growth, this stagnation has kept nickel prices subdued. A property turnaround would help, but given the surplus outlook, price upside would likely be limited,” Manthey said.

Adding to nickel’s woes is soft growth from the EV market.

Much of the increase in nickel production over the last five years was to fuel the need for EV batteries, but more recently producers like Contemporary Amperex Technology (SZSE:300750,HKEX:3750), one of the world’s largest battery makers, have shifted chemistry to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP).

Nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries had been seen as superior due to their higher energy density and longer range. But recent advances in LFP technology have erased that gap, with vehicles using the chemistry achieving ranges of over 750 kilometers. Additionally, LFP batteries are cheaper to produce and less volatile, making them safer.

According to a December 1 Reuters article, nickel battery demand rose 1 percent year-on-year in September, while LFP battery demand increased 7 percent. However, the news outlet notes that most of the nickel demand was likely driven more by a rapidly growing EV market than by the benefits of its chemistry.

Although Reuters also notes that nickel chemistry remains the dominant battery technology in western EV markets, that too comes with a caveat, especially in the US, where the elimination of the EV tax credit in September has cratered EV demand. While US EV sales reached a record 1.2 million through the first nine months of 2025, much of that was driven by consumers seeking to take advantage of the US$7,500 credit before it expired.

Early data from Cox Automotive analysis indicates that American EV sales are down 46 percent in Q4 from the third quarter, and 37 percent from the same period last year.

Against that backdrop, Ford Motor (NASDAQ:F) has scaled back its EV plans, taking a US$19.5 billion writedown, and will pivot to extended-range EVs — which use gas-powered engines to augment range — and hybrid cars. Similarly, in mid-December, the EU dropped its plans to ban the sale of all internal combustion engine light vehicles by 2035.

These policy changes likely aren’t good news for nickel watchers.

“Any slowdown in energy transition policies adds to bearish sentiment for battery metals, including nickel,” Manthey said.

Nickel price forecast for 2026

Manthey suggested that nickel prices will remain under pressure throughout 2026.

“We expect prices to struggle to hold above US$16,000 given the surplus. Upside risks hinge on unexpected supply disruptions or stronger-than-forecast stainless and battery demand, but sustained levels above US$19,000 look unlikely under current fundamentals. We see prices averaging US$15,250 in 2026,” she said.

That’s in line with the World Bank’s 2026 nickel price outlook of US$15,500, rising to US$16,000 in 2027.

The primary reason for these projections is the ongoing nickel market surplus.

While it didn’t make a price prediction, Russia’s Nornickel, one of the world’s largest nickel producers, suggests that the market will see a surplus of 275,000 MT of refined nickel in 2026.

Low prices will be a challenge for nickel producers and investors alike. Until there is a shift in market fundamentals, a rebound for nickel doesn’t appear to be in the cards in the short or even medium term.