Dow futures surged 150 points on Friday, as traders waited for Jerome Powell’s big speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Everyone’s looking for clues on whether the Fed might actually cut rates at the September meeting.
The market’s been shaky all week and mixed data, stubborn inflation, and plenty of political noise haven’t helped.
With the S&P 500 down five days straight, Powell’s words could set the tone for the rest of the year and close out his time as Fed Chair on a decisive note.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. Jerome Powell is set to deliver his final Jackson Hole speech today before his term as Fed Chair ends in May 2026.
Over the years, the event has become the go-to stage for big monetary policy signals, and this year’s theme which is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” comes at a critical moment.
With inflation still sticky and labor dynamics shifting, Powell faces the tricky task of hinting at possible September rate cuts while also defending his legacy, all under the glare of political pressure.
2. President Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on the Federal Reserve to deliver rate cuts, repeatedly calling for immediate action despite no moves from the central bank so far this year.
He has also demanded the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, tying the controversy to his broader criticism of the Fed.
The backdrop adds political weight to Powell’s address today, underscoring the tension between central bank independence and mounting demands for policy shifts.
3. Hiring has slowed while inflation shows signs of edging higher, leaving the Federal Reserve caught between its two mandates.
The trade tariffs starting to filter into consumer prices add to the dilemma. Investors are waiting on Powell to signal whether the central bank will lean more toward fighting inflation or protecting jobs in the months ahead.
4. US Treasury yields barely moved ahead of Powell’s speech, with the 10-year shifting less than a basis point. Investors are essentially sitting on their hands, waiting to see if Powell gives any hint on where rates go next.
The market is leaning toward a cut in September, odds are sitting near 71% but nobody wants to commit before the Fed signals its direction.
Powell’s comments could finally break the stalemate and show how serious the Fed is about easing.
5. US equities are flat after the longest losing run since January. In Asia, China’s CSI 300 jumped to multi-year highs.
Different regions, different stories, policy paths, and growth outlooks aren’t lining up. Traders are waiting on Powell at Jackson Hole to see if he shifts the tone.
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