Dow futures edged up over 100 points early Monday, hinting at a steady start after last week’s tech-driven rally. Traders are bracing for a packed few days of economic reports, with inflation numbers at the top of the list.
Tariff headlines and the drumbeat of Fed rate-cut chatter are still in play. Apple and Nvidia were both ticking higher in premarket trade, keeping the broader indexes within sight of record levels.
Geopolitics and fresh tariff news stirred the pot a bit, but investors still seemed willing to take on risk as the week kicked off.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. The Fed is largely expected to kick off a round of rate cuts in September 2025, with JPMorgan and other big banks projecting roughly five reductions this cycle to give the economy a lift as the labor market shows signs of cooling.
Traders have already priced in strong odds of a 25-basis-point trim next month, signaling rising confidence that the easing path is about to begin.
2. Recent US inflation numbers have sent a mixed message, consumer prices ticked up a bit, partly thanks to tariffs.
But many economists think that’s a temporary blip and point to cooling price pressures beneath the surface, which could give the Fed more leeway to cut rates without kicking off another round of inflation.
3. Fresh US jobs data shows hiring losing a bit of steam and unemployment edging higher, stirring worries that the economy’s momentum is fading, a shift that could nudge the Fed toward cutting rates sooner, and perhaps more decisively, than it had planned.
Investors are keeping a close eye on the big data coming up, especially the inflation and jobs reports due in August. These numbers will play a huge role in shaping what the market expects and how the Fed moves next.
4. Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are still shaping the mood on Wall Street.
The latest round of tariffs and the ripple effects they’re having on prices and corporate bottom lines have added another layer of complexity to the Fed’s decision-making.
If incoming data shows these costs feeding through to inflation, policymakers could take a more cautious approach. But if the impact fades quickly, it might clear the way for rate cuts to come sooner rather than later.
5. Lately, markets have perked up thanks to some positive diplomatic chatter. The big thing? Trump and Putin are set to meet on August 15 to talk about ending the war in Ukraine.
That news has eased some of the usual geopolitical jitters, giving investors a bit more confidence to take on risk.
The investors can see it in the gains across US and Asian markets, as traders are hoping the talks might cool things down and help global growth.
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