No MVP, no problem. The third-seeded 76ers pulled off one of the bigger upsets this postseason in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup against the reigning conference-champion Celtics, winning outright as 10.5-point underdogs.
Without their man in the middle, the 76ers got an MVP performance from the 2018 Most Valuable Player, James Harden, who poured in 45 points on 17-of-30 shooting. Harden especially took over in crunch time, sinking the game-winning three-pointer over Al Horford with 8.4 seconds remaining. Monday night’s effort was the Beard’s first 40-point effort in a Sixers’ uniform, and his ability to space the floor by hitting seven-of-14 threes masked a rather inefficient defensive effort from Philadelphia.
The Sixers’ interior defense couldn’t do much to stop Jayson Tatum, whose 39-point effort (14-of-25 shooting) would have been the primary talking point had the Celtics found a way to limit Harden’s effectiveness. Boston ended Game 1 shooting 58.7 percent from the field, outscoring Philadelphia 66-42 in the paint by taking advantage of the Sixers’ lack of rim protection. However, it doesn’t take a math wizard to understand the power of the three-pointer, and the Sixers’ ability to splash in 17 treys was the difference in taking an early 1-0 series lead.
Boston was pegged as 10-point favorites ahead of tonight’s Game 2 matchup, but after NBA insider Shams Charania reported that Embiid is “on track to return tonight“, respected money has moved Philadelphia’s spread down to +7.5. In a corresponding move, the Celtics sit as just -135 favorites (implied probability: 57.45 percent) to return to the Eastern Conference Finals after opening as -350 favorites (implied probability: 77.78 percent) on the series line.
What’s the best way to approach betting on the Celtics-76ers series? Below, we’ll break down our favorite series long prop on BetMGM and give our pick on how to bet this best-of-seven ahead of Game 2.
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Celtics vs. 76ers updated series odds, picks, predictions
Team
Series Odds
Celtics
-135
76ers
+110
Just this morning, Boston sat as -200 favorites (implied probability: 66.66 percent) on the series line, but with Embiid on track to return, we’ve seen another dip in Celtics series price. It may seem counterintuitive, but having the newly dubbed MVP back on the floor might not be as big a help to the Sixers’ chances of going up 2-0 as one would expect.
From the betting market’s perspective, it’s a no-brainer to see the Sixers’ implied win probability rise when getting back a man who’s leading the league in scoring (33.1 ppg) on 54.8 percent shooting, but from a schematic perspective, it may hinder their chances of returning to Philly with a 2-0 series lead.
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The Sixers’ pace on both ends of the floor will take a slight hit tonight, and although Embiid’s presence will result in a better effort from the Sixers’ interior defense, how will his conditioning affect him in the fourth quarter? Over the duration of this best-of-seven, Embiid’s conditioning likely won’t be much of a determining factor, but it figures to be a focal point in Game 2. It’s not a monumental difference, but Philly’s played faster sans Embiid in the regular season, sporting a 97.15 pace without the MVP as opposed to a 95.79 pace with Embiid. Philadelphia also averaged 3.9 more points per game while attempting 0.8 more threes.
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As a multi-possession underdog, evident in their Game 1 victory, three-point shooting variance can be the Sixers’ best friend. If the Sixers are less three-point reliant tonight, it could come back to bite them. Although shooting 44.7 percent on 38 three-point attempts is unsustainable over the long haul, the Sixers have the personnel capable of out-shooting the Celtics from deep throughout the series.
That being said, since we think Harden fails to replicate his Game 1 output while the Sixers readjust to playing with Embiid, we believe the Celtics grind out a home win to even up the series. If Boston can knot this series at 1-1, we’ll see Boston’s series price adjust back to the -200 range; therefore, we’ll look to the C’s series price as our best bet ahead of Game 2.
Best bet: Celtics series price (-135)
NBA Playoffs 2023 odds: Best series long prop for Celtics-76ers
Series Total Games Over/Under
Over
Under
4.5 games
-3000
+1200
5.5 games
-275
+225
6.5 games
+155
-190
Although we’re betting the Celtics to emerge victorious and return to the Eastern Conference Finals, it won’t come easy. Therefore, our favorite series long prop bet is on the OVER 6.5 games (+155). Once Embiid’s back to game speed, the Sixers can easily win two more games this series (likely at home), even with Boston holding serve at home tonight.
