American coach Jesse Marsch is out as manager of Leeds United after less than a year in charge.
The 49-year-old took over at the Premier League club after the dismissal of Marcelo Bielsa in late February, 2022. At the time, Marsch was considered an apt replacement due to his European success at RB Salzburg and his deployment of a high-press tactical approach that fit with Bielsa’s style, lending to a seamless transition from one coach to the other.
While Marsch saved the club from relegation last season, poor form through the winter of the 2022/23 campaign has seen the club back in the fight near the bottom of the table.
Ultimately, the poor results and relegation possibility have led to Marsch’s dismissal, but some things don’t quite add up amidst the long-term project of the club.
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Leeds United form under Jesse Marsch
It’s tough to spin an argument defending Jesse Marsch when you consider the recent form of Leeds United in Premier League play.
Marsch started the year by picking up eight points from the first five matches of the season through the end of August, but since, the club has won just twice and collected just nine points.
Leeds have suffered a host of difficult defeats in recent weeks, coming close to securing results but unable to get over the hump. They drew 0-0 with both Newcastle and Brentford, clubs that would have expected to beat the relegation contenders, and suffered a 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa that saw them miss a host of chances in front of net. The latest result, a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest, came as Leeds again failed to finish a number of good opportunities, stymied by new Forest goalkeeper Keylor Navas.
Away form under Marsch has been particularly poor, even from the start, as Leeds have picked up just five points from 10 road league matches this season. In fact, Marsch’s struggles on the road date back to before he joined the Premier League club. Since leaving RB Salzburg to join RB Leipzig in 2021, Marsch has picked up just four wins in 23 road games across all competitions with RB Leipzig and Leeds, collecting six draws while suffering 13 defeats.
Finishing a big issue for Leeds United
While Marsch’s tactical approach has failed to produce results, it can be harsh to place that blame squarely on his shoulders.
Recently, Leeds have suffered from a run of extremely poor finishing in front of goal, which has cost them points. That was on full display in the recent 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest that ultimately sealed Marsch’s fate, with Keylor Navas making a host of big saves and Patrick Bamford putting forth a horrible effort on a 34th minute shot that should have found the back of the net.
While Leeds’ overall season expected goals mark of 27.53 xG sports just a negligible -1.53 differential from xG to actual goals scored, they have fallen short in key moments that have cost them points in matches throughout the season where they dominated play but failed to come away with a result. For example, the defeat to Nottingham Forest saw Leeds fall 1-0 despite owning a 1.12-0.33 xG advantage. Again this occurred in the 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa where they won the xG battle 2.46-1.64, or a 1-0 defeat to league leaders Arsenal where they finished the match with a massive 2.02-0.82 xG advantage.
This is reflected when evaluating the league based on Expected Points, which is an analytical statistic which generates a number between zero and three for the amount of points a team should have collected based on the scoring chances of each match. According to UnderStat.com, Leeds United’s xPTS value of 25.87 sees them hold a -7.87 differential from actual points to expected points, second-worst in the league behind West Ham’s -11.35. On xPTS, Leeds would sit 12th in the league, a full five places higher than their actual position of 17th.
Again, this concept is evident when you review the way in which Leeds have fallen short this season, losing seven one-goal matches this year, one of the worst marks in the Premier League.
While Marsch can be blamed for some of the defensive mistakes and tactical slips, the underlying numbers (and simply watching the matches) suggest the players have also let him down greatly in front of goal.
Marsch transfer activity at Leeds United
While it’s hard to defend Marsch based simply on results, it’s also extremely confusing why Leeds have taken this step now, just six days after the end of the January transfer window.
Marsch’s philosophy and tactical approach were key to the Leeds transfer strategy this past winter, where the club spent EUR41 million on incoming players. Max Wober cost the club EUR12 million, arriving from RB Salzburg, a former Marsch coaching stop, and was clearly a target to fit his coaching style. Additionally, Leeds acquired American international Weston McKennie on Deadline Day, with the midfielder reportedly swayed to join the club on loan from Juventus by Marsch himself.
Widen the lens to include the previous summer transfer window, and this decision gets even more baffling. EUR32 million arrival Brenden Aaronson is essentially the combination of the two aforementioned winter acquisitions: an American international arriving from RB Salzburg, a disciple of the Red Bull pressing system. American midfielder Tyler Adams is another pressing whiz, and he has excelled in the Marsch high-press system.
It’s enormously confusing why the club would turn around and bail on Marsch just days — and indeed, months — after the significant financial investment in players that would fit his style of play going forward.
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