For much of this season it appeared somewhat inevitable that Manchester City would retain the Premier League title. At one point, their lead over Liverpool was at 14 points.
However, City dropped points here and there and Liverpool went on an impressive streak, taking all three points in 15 of their last 17 league games. And that made for a title race down the stretch.
Man City currently have a one-point edge with one match remaining, while also adding to their goal difference should the two teams finished tied atop the standings (+72 vs. +66). That gives Pep Guardiola’s defending champions additional breathing room for the stretch run.
Time is running out for Liverpool, who need Man City to drop points in its final match against Aston Villa for a shot at overtaking them. Below is the complete picture of the run-in for both clubs, and an explanation of the scenario should they finish the season even on points at the top of the table, which is still a possibility.
FiveThirtyEight gives Man City an 82 percent chance of retaining its title, while Liverpool are projected at only 18 percent to win it. The table snapshot below is updated as of matches on Tuesday, May 17.
Place
Team
Points
Games
Goals
Goal Diff.
1.
Manchester City
90
37
96
+72
2.
Liverpool
89
37
91
+66
3.
Chelsea
70
36
73
+42
MORE: What happens if Liverpool and Man City are tied on points?
Manchester City run-in
Total matches remaining: 1
Home matches: 1 — vs. Aston Villa
Away matches: 0
Between a 3-2 home loss to Tottenham (Feb. 19), a 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace (March 14), and a 2-2 draw at West Ham (May 15) Man City dropped enough points in recent months to give a steamrolling Liverpool side the chance to get back in the race.
But Man City also padded its goal difference by registering an emphatic 5-0 win over Newcastle on May 8, followed by a 5-1 road win at Wolves three days later.
The Citizens then were held by West Ham in a 2-2 draw, in which Riyad Mahrez missed a penalty to win it late. Still, the point means that City still control their own destiny, and a win at home on the final day would clinch the title.
Match
Date
Home/Away
Opponent
Time (BST)
Time (ET)
38
Sun, May 22
H
Aston Villa
4 p.m.
11 a.m.
MORE: Premier League battle to avoid relegation
Liverpool run-in
Total matches remaining: 1
Home matches: 1 — vs. Wolves
Away matches: 0
Based on the Premier League table, Liverpool always had the tougher run-in than City and it proved to be the case as they dropped points in a 1-1 home draw on May 7 against Tottenham Hotspur.
The Reds bounced back by grinding out a win at Aston Villa (2-1) and at Southampton (2-1), but they still still need Manchester City to drop points on Championship Sunday.
At this point it won’t be easy for Klopp’s team: They have no choice but to win and hope Aston Villa can get a last-day result against Man City.
MORE: How can Liverpool win the Premier League title?
Match
Date
Home/Away
Opponent
Time (BST)
Time (ET)
38
Sun, May 22
H
Wolves
4 p.m.
11 a.m.
Who wins title if Man City, Liverpool finish level on points?
In the event that City and Liverpool finish level on points, there is a series of tiebreakers that would come into play in this order:
Goal difference;
Goals scored;
Points in head-to-head matches;
Away goals in head-to-head matches;
Single match playoff decider.
The only way the two contenders can finish even on points is if both wind up with 90 points: That would require Liverpool to draw against Wolves and Man City to lose at home to Aston Villa.
City currently have a goal difference of +72, while Liverpool is at +66. It would take a catastrophic result to see City lose the title in the case they’re both level on 90 points.
And if the teams somehow finish even on goal difference — City would need to lose by an incredible six-goal margin to Aston Villa — we’d move on to the next tiebreaker: goals scored.
Man City are currently ahead in that department, too. City have found the net 96 times so far, five ahead of Liverpool who are at 91. Liverpool could presumably tie Wolves 5-5 to make up ground there, too.
As outlined in the Premier League’s official handbook (page 107), if the teams are also even on goals scored, then we’d move on to points in head-to-head matches and away goals in head-to-head matches. But since both of those head-to-head showdowns in 2021-22 finished 2-2, the fifth and final tiebreaker would come into play: the neutral ground playoff.
“If two Clubs cannot be separated by operation of Rule C.17.1 (points in head-to-head matches) and C.17.2 (away goals in head-to-head matches), a play-off on a neutral ground, the format, timing and venue of which shall be determined by the Board.”
